Predicting the future is always one of the more difficult aspects of governing; we’re fortunate in Oak Ridge (and Oak Ridge Schools) to have some folks on staff who are gifted in that area.<\/p>\n
They don’t claim any prophetic talents — no crystal balls, incense, turbans and the like — but they are handy with calculators, formulas, and such.\u00c2\u00a0 Since the last City Council meeting (which I missed, as it was during Spring Break), the forecast for Crestpointe (should the bond referendum pass) has been revised and refined.<\/p>\n
\n—–Original Message—–
\nFrom:<\/span><\/strong> Jenkins, Steve
\nSent:<\/span><\/strong> Thursday, March 29, 2007 2:05 PM
\n<\/strong>Subject:<\/span><\/strong> Latest Crestpointe Analysis<\/span><\/font>\n<\/p>\nAs a result of discussions at the last City Council meeting, attached is a spreadsheet<\/a> that incorporates the very latest information on Crestpointe. The changes from the original analysis are as follows:<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
\u00c2\u00a01.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>The analysis now incorporates the actual borrowing that will be recommended. The amount of that borrowing is $2,500,000 for 15 years @ 4.5%.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
2.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>The balance of the $10,500,000 or $8,000,000 will be paid from reserves that will be advanced to the economic diversification fund by the debt service fund.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
3.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>The model includes a contribution by the County of approximately $87,000 annually for the taxes paid to the County by Target. If the County does not contribute to the project, the repayment schedule would be extended by 2 to 3 years.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
4.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>Property tax collections from the site grow at 3 percent annually, which is conservative based on the City\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s tax history for the prior 15 years.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
\u00c2\u00a0After incorporating these changes, the results are as follows:<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
\u00c2\u00a01.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>The property tax collections alone will pay the debt service<\/strong> on the $2,500,000 and replace the $8,000,000 within a 15 year period. This is very important to the project because no sales tax collections will be necessary to retire the debt. In addition, there will be some funds, (approximately $800,000) available in year 14 and 15 for other uses.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
2.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>Any property tax collections from the site after 15 years will no longer be necessary for the project and the lease agreements can be released. At that point, property taxes will be paid as normal to the City and County and can be used for other purposes.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
3.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>This analysis shows that any net increase in sales tax collections will provide new revenue to the City, City Schools, and County Schools.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
4.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>If the City chooses, it could use a portion of the sales tax to retire the debt and\/or replace the reserves earlier.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
5.<\/span><\/font>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 <\/span><\/font>Finally, in this analysis, assuming the buildings are constructed, the project downside moves from 10 cents on the tax rate to no negative impact on the property tax rate. The upside is also much better.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n
This analysis still includes a $60,000,000 net gain in sales tax collections for the City and County, but as stated earlier, any gain in sales tax collections will produce new revenues for the City, City Schools, and County Schools.<\/span><\/font><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
This is a very viable project, and one that I truly hope Oak Ridgers will support in the coming referendum.\u00c2\u00a0 The only remaining question I’m hearing is, “where is the ‘new’ sales tax money coming from?”\u00c2\u00a0 The answer, very simply, is that the “new” revenue is that which is currently going to Knox County, when our residents (and others who would otherwise shop in Oak Ridge because it’s closer to where they live or work) have to go to Knoxville to buy the items they want and need because of the limited selection here.<\/p>\n
It’s not money that isn’t currently being spent, it’s just being spent elsewhere.<\/p>\n
If we had someone who could coordinate Oak Ridgers the way Pat Summit coordinates her team, there’s no limit to the things that could happen here.\u00c2\u00a0 Unfortunately, we don’t listen quite as well as the Lady Vols, with far too many armchair coaches and not enough teamwork.<\/p>\n
We can change that, and should.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Predicting the future is always one of the more difficult aspects of governing; we’re fortunate in Oak Ridge (and Oak Ridge Schools) to have some folks on staff who are gifted in that area. They don’t claim any prophetic talents … Continue reading